Ua hōʻike ʻo Gartner, kahi hui noiʻi ʻenehana a me ka nānā ʻana i ka makahiki 2024, e hoʻomau nā mea hana kaʻa e hoʻokō i nā loli i lawe ʻia e ka polokalamu a me ka electrification, no laila e hoʻomaka ai i kahi pae hou o nā kaʻa uila.
ʻOi aku ka wikiwiki o ka ʻaila a me ka uila ma mua o ka mea i manaʻo ʻia
Ke hāʻule nei nā kumukūʻai pākaukau, akā e hāʻule ʻoi aku ka wikiwiki o nā kumukūʻai hana kaʻa uila e hoʻomaikaʻi i nā ʻenehana hou e like me ka gigacasting. ʻO ka hopena, manaʻo ʻo Gartner ma ka makahiki 2027 e emi ke kumukūʻai o nā kaʻa uila i ka hana ʻana ma mua o nā kaʻa ʻenekini puhi ahi ma muli o nā ʻenehana hana hou a me nā kumukūʻai haʻahaʻa haʻahaʻa.
Ma kēia mea, ua ʻōlelo ʻo Pedro Pacheco, ka pelekikena noiʻi ma Gartner: "Ke manaʻolana nei nā OEM hou e hoʻololi hou i ke kūlana quo o ka ʻoihana kaʻa. Hāʻawi lākou i nā ʻenehana hou e hoʻomaʻamaʻa i nā kumukūʻai hana, e like me ke kikowaena automotive architecture a i ʻole ka hoʻohuihui make-casting, e kōkua i ka hōʻemi ʻana i nā kumukūʻai hana. ke kumu kūʻai a me ka manawa hui, ʻaʻohe koho o ka poʻe kaʻa kuʻuna akā e lawe i kēia mau mea hou i mea e ola ai.
"Ua nānā ʻo Tesla a me nā mea ʻē aʻe i ka hana ʻana i kahi ala hou loa," i haʻi aku ai ʻo Pacheco iā Automotive News Europe ma mua o ka hoʻokuʻu ʻana o ka hōʻike.
ʻO kekahi o nā mea hou kaulana loa a Tesla ʻo ia ka "die-casting i hoʻohui ʻia," e pili ana i ka make-casting i ka hapa nui o ke kaʻa i loko o kahi ʻāpana hoʻokahi, ma mua o ka hoʻohana ʻana i ka nui o nā helu wili a me nā mea hoʻopili. Manaʻo ʻo Pacheco a me nā poʻe loea ʻē aʻe ʻo Tesla he alakaʻi hou i ka ʻoki ʻana i nā kumukūʻai hui a he paionia i ka hoʻohui ʻana i ka make-casting.
Ua lohi ka lawe ʻana i nā kaʻa uila i kekahi mau mākeke nui, ʻo ia hoʻi ʻo ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa a me ʻEulopa, no laila ʻōlelo ka poʻe loea he mea koʻikoʻi i nā mea hana kaʻa e hoʻolauna i nā kumu kūʻai haʻahaʻa.
Ua kuhikuhi ʻo Pacheco i ka ʻenehana make-casting i hoʻohui ʻia e hiki ke hōʻemi i ke kumukūʻai o ke kino i ke keʻokeʻo e "ma ka liʻiliʻi loa" 20%, a hiki ke hoʻemi ʻia nā kumu kūʻai ʻē aʻe ma o ka hoʻohana ʻana i nā ʻeke pākahiko e like me nā mea hoʻolālā.
Ua hāʻule nā kumukūʻai pākaukau no nā makahiki, ʻōlelo ʻo ia, akā ʻo ka hāʻule ʻana o nā kumukūʻai hui he "mea i manaʻo ʻole ʻia" e lawe mai i nā kaʻa uila i ka parity kūʻai me nā kaʻa ʻenekini puhi ahi ma mua o ka manaʻo. "Ke hōʻea nei mākou i kēia wahi tipping ma mua o ka mea i manaʻo ʻia," i hoʻohui ai ʻo ia.
ʻO kahi kikoʻī, hāʻawi kahi kahua EV i hoʻolaʻa ʻia i nā mea hana kaʻa i ke kūʻokoʻa e hoʻolālā i nā laina hui e kūpono i ko lākou mau hiʻohiʻona, e komo pū ana me nā kaʻa uila liʻiliʻi a me nā papahele pākaukau.
ʻO ka hoʻohālikelike ʻana, loaʻa i nā paepae kūpono no ka "multi-powertrains" kekahi mau palena, no ka mea, makemake lākou i kahi e hoʻokipa ai i kahi pahu wahie a i ʻole ka mīkini / hoʻouna.
ʻOiai ʻo ia ke ʻano o ka loaʻa ʻana o nā kaʻa uila uila i ka parity o ke kumukūʻai me nā kaʻa ʻenekini puhi ahi i ʻoi aku ka wikiwiki ma mua o ka mea i manaʻo mua ʻia, e hoʻonui nui ʻia ke kumukūʻai o kekahi mau hoʻoponopono no nā kaʻa uila uila.
Ua wānana ʻo Gartner e hiki i ka makahiki 2027, e hoʻonui ʻia ke kumukūʻai maʻamau no ka hoʻoponopono ʻana i nā pōʻino koʻikoʻi e pili ana i nā kino kaʻa uila a me nā pihi e hoʻonui ʻia e 30%. No laila, ʻoi aku ka makemake o nā mea nona ke koho e ʻoki i kahi kaʻa uila i hāʻule ʻia no ka mea ʻoi aku ka nui o nā kumukūʻai hoʻoponopono ma mua o kona waiwai hoʻopakele. Pēlā nō, no ka mea ʻoi aku ka pipiʻi o ka hoʻoponopono ʻana i ka hui ʻana, ʻoi aku ke kiʻekiʻe o nā uku ʻinikua kaʻa, a hiki i nā hui ʻinikua e hōʻole i ka uhi no kekahi mau hiʻohiʻona.
ʻO ka hoʻohaʻahaʻa wikiwiki ʻana i ke kumu kūʻai no ka hana ʻana i nā BEV ʻaʻole pono e lilo i ka uku o nā kumukūʻai mālama kiʻekiʻe, no ka mea hiki ke hoʻihoʻi i ka mea kūʻai aku i ka wā lōʻihi. Pono e kau ʻia nā ʻano hana hou no ka hana ʻana i nā kaʻa uila piha me nā kaʻina hana e hōʻoiaʻiʻo ai i nā kumukūʻai mālama haʻahaʻa.
Ke komo nei ka mākeke kaʻa uila i ka pae "ola o ka pono".
Ua ʻōlelo ʻo Pacheco inā a i ka wā e unuhi ʻia ai nā kumukūʻai mai nā kaʻa uila i nā kumukūʻai kūʻai haʻahaʻa e pili ana i ka mea hana, akā ʻo ke kumukūʻai maʻamau o nā kaʻa uila a me nā kaʻa ʻenekini hoʻopau i loko e hiki i ka parity e 2027. Akā ua kuhikuhi pū ʻo ia i nā hui kaʻa uila e like me Loaʻa iā BYD a me Tesla ka hiki ke hōʻoki i nā kumukūʻai no ka mea he haʻahaʻa ko lākou kumukūʻai, no laila ʻaʻole e hōʻeha nui ka ʻoki ʻana i kā lākou waiwai.
Eia hou, ke wānana nei ʻo Gartner i ka ulu ikaika ʻana o ke kūʻai ʻana i nā kaʻa uila, me ka hapalua o nā kaʻa i kūʻai ʻia ma 2030 he mau kaʻa uila maʻemaʻe. Akā ke hoʻohālikelike ʻia me ka "holo gula" o nā mea hana kaʻa uila mua, ke komo nei ka mākeke i kahi manawa o ka "ola o ka mea kūpono".
Ua wehewehe ʻo Pacheco i ka makahiki 2024 ma ke ʻano he makahiki o ka hoʻololi ʻana no ka mākeke kaʻa uila ʻEulopa, me nā hui Kina e like me BYD a me MG ke kūkulu nei i kā lākou mau kikowaena kūʻai aku a me nā lineups kūloko, ʻoiai nā mea hana kaʻa kahiko e like me Renault a me Stellantis e hoʻolauna i nā kumu kūʻai haʻahaʻa ma ka ʻāina.
"ʻO ka nui o nā mea e hana nei i kēia manawa ʻaʻole paha e pili i ke kūʻai aku, akā ke mākaukau nei lākou no nā mea nui aʻe," wahi āna.
I kēia manawa, nui nā mea hoʻomaka kaʻa uila kiʻekiʻe i hakakā i ka makahiki i hala, me Polestar, ka mea i ʻike i ka hāʻule nui o kāna kumukūʻai mai kona papa inoa ʻana, a me Lucid, nāna i ʻoki i kāna wānana hana 2024 e 90%. ʻO nā hui pilikia ʻē aʻe ʻo Fisker, e kamaʻilio pū ana me Nissan, a me Gaohe, i hōʻike ʻia i kahi pani hana.
Ua ʻōlelo ʻo Pacheco, "I kēlā manawa, nui nā mea hoʻomaka i hōʻuluʻulu ʻia ma ke kahua kaʻa uila me ka manaʻoʻiʻo e hiki iā lākou ke loaʻa ka loaʻa kālā maʻalahi - mai nā mea hana kaʻa a hiki i nā ʻoihana hoʻolimalima kaʻa uila - a ua hilinaʻi nui kekahi o lākou i ke kālā o waho, ʻo ia ka mea i hana nui ai lākou. pilikia i ka makeke. Ka hopena o nā pilikia. "
Ua wānana ʻo Gartner ma 2027, 15% o nā hui kaʻa uila i hoʻokumu ʻia i nā makahiki i hala aku nei e loaʻa a lilo i panakalupa, ʻoi aku ka poʻe i hilinaʻi nui i ka hoʻopukapuka waho e hoʻomau i nā hana. Eia naʻe, "ʻaʻole ia he manaʻo ke emi nei ka ʻoihana kaʻa uila, ke komo wale nei i kahi pae hou kahi e lanakila ai nā hui me nā huahana a me nā lawelawe maikaʻi loa ma luna o nā ʻoihana ʻē aʻe." wahi a Pacheco.
Eia kekahi, ua ʻōlelo pū ʻo ia "he nui nā ʻāina e hoʻopau i nā mea hoʻoikaika e pili ana i nā kaʻa uila, e ʻoi aku ka paʻakikī o ka mākeke no nā mea pāʻani." Eia nō naʻe, "ke komo nei mākou i kahi hana hou i hiki ʻole ke kūʻai ʻia nā kaʻa uila maʻemaʻe ma nā mea hoʻoikaika / ʻae a i ʻole nā pono kaiapuni. Pono nā BEV he huahana maikaʻi loa a puni i ka hoʻohālikelike ʻana i nā kaʻa ʻenekini hoʻopau i loko.
ʻOiai ke hoʻohui nei ka mākeke EV, e hoʻomau ka ulu ʻana o nā moku a me ke komo ʻana. Ua wānana ʻo Gartner e hōʻea nā moku kaʻa uila i 18.4 miliona mau ʻāpana i 2024 a me 20.6 miliona mau ʻāpana i 2025.
Ka manawa hoʻouna: Mar-20-2024